€Motskin

Motskin Methodology

Version 1.1

Published institutional version

Version 1.1 of the Motskin methodology introduces a structural improvement to the estimation model. The goal: strengthen statistical consistency, eliminate arbitrary adjustments, integrate urban transformation logic (TAMA 38 / Evacuation-Construction), and maintain a clear separation between current value and projected value.

1Building Categorization

Properties are classified by year of construction:

  • Old: year < 1985
  • Standard: year ≥ 1985 and < (current year – 5)
  • New / Recent: year ≥ (current year – 5)

The current year is dynamic. Thresholds are configurable in the admin panel.

2Current Statistical Value

The central value is based on:

  • Registered transactions
  • Hierarchical geographic selection (Neighborhood → City)
  • Progressive time window (3 → 6 → 9 → 12 months)
  • Comparable surface area (±20%)
  • Robust median of price per m²
  • 10% trim if sample ≥ 15 sales
This value is the primary reference of the report.
3Feature Adjustments (Version 1.1)

The following features can be declared: Parking, Storage, Elevator, Balcony, Mamad (safe room)

Fundamental rule

Adjustments apply only to Old buildings. In Standard and New categories, these features are considered already integrated into the market price.

Adjustment method: no fixed percentage is applied. The system dynamically calculates the median difference between old buildings with / without the feature, in the same area and period.

The adjustment is indicative and displayed separately from the statistical value.

4Urban Renewal Projections

Version 1.1 introduces a clear distinction between current statistical value and theoretical projected value. The projected value does not replace the current value and is not guaranteed.

TAMA 38

  • • Robust median price per m² of properties classified as "Standard / Recent"
  • • Same neighborhood (fallback: city)
  • • Rolling window 3–12 months · Min. 5 comparables
  • • Projected area = current area + 25 m²
  • • Projected value = median price/m² × projected area
  • • Reflects structural reinforcement and expansion of an existing building

Pinui Binui

  • • Robust median price per m² of properties classified strictly as "New"
  • • Same neighborhood (fallback: city)
  • • Rolling window 3–12 months · Min. 5 NEW comparables
  • • Projected area = current area + 25 m²
  • • Projected value = median price/m² (New) × projected area
  • • Reflects full reconstruction of a new building

Additional m² are configurable in the admin panel. If the minimum of 5 comparables is not reached, no projection is displayed.

Transparency

Projected values are based on current market prices only. They do not factor in administrative timelines, do not assume permit approval, and do not constitute an accredited valuation.

5Value Level Separation

The report now clearly distinguishes:

  1. Current statistical value
  2. Statistical range
  3. Declarative adjustments (for Old buildings)
  4. Projected value (if urban project declared)
No projection replaces the current value.
6Limits and Transparency

Projections:

  • Are based on current prices
  • Do not account for project timelines
  • Assume full completion of the project

They are displayed as theoretical estimates only.

7Technical Detail — Algorithm v1.1

Exclusion filters applied before any calculation:

  • is_valid_for_statistics = false
  • price ≤ 0
  • surface < 15 m² or > 400 m²
  • gush / helka / tathelka missing (incomplete cadastral data)
  • adresse_brut: null, '0' or empty (new buildings without assigned street)

Geographic filter (no GPS) — hierarchical precision:

  • Level 1: Gush + Helka (cadastral, most precise) — if provided
  • Level 2: Same street (normalized adresse_brut, city-wide fetch)
  • Level 3: Neighborhood (quartier_id, if provided)
  • Level 4: City-wide fallback

Time windows and minimum threshold:

  • Sequence: 3 → 6 → 9 → 12 months (rolling from today)
  • Minimum threshold: 5 comparable transactions
  • Building age filter (OLD/STANDARD/NEW) applied only if result ≥ 5 after filtering, otherwise ignored
  • If threshold never reached → 'insufficient data' error

Final statistic:

  • Robust median of price per m² (across all comparables)
  • Trim 10% on each side if N ≥ 15
  • Low range = Q1 (25th percentile)
  • High range = Q3 (75th percentile)
  • Estimated price = median × subject property surface

Data source: nadlan.gov.il (Israeli National Real Estate Transaction Registry).

✅ Version 1.1 Conclusion
  • ✓ Removes fixed heuristics
  • ✓ Strengthens statistical robustness
  • ✓ Integrates urban transformation
  • ✓ Clarifies report reading

Motskin.com maintains its commitment: Data-driven analysis. Methodological neutrality. Structural transparency.

This report is based on public recorded data and does not constitute a professional appraisal.